Playoff picture: Week 10

For each of the final two weeks of the regular season, we’re going to look at the standings to see what playoff matchups might happen in the first round of the playoffs for area teams.

These numbers also maintain good health and no further shutdowns which, in 2020, is probably unlikely. The “can finish” numbers are also crunched to the best of our knowledge as well.

Based on the current TSSAA standings, here’s how teams in our coverage area currently stand with two weeks to play:

Class 6A

Region 3

1. Oakland – 8-0 overall, 5-0 3-6A
Current first-round opponent: vs. Lebanon
Can finish: 1st, 2nd or 3rd
Left to play: vs. Coffee County; at Warren County
3. Riverdale – 6-2 overall, 4-1 3-6A
Current first-round opponent: at Rossview
Can finish: 1st, 2nd, 3rd or 4th
Left to play: at Warren County, at Coffee County
5. Blackman – 2-5 overall, 2-3 3-6A
Current first-round opponent: none, below cut line
Can finish: 4th or out
Left to play: at Siegel, at Cookeville

Warren County-Oakland in Week 11 is for the region title unless Coffee County pulls a major upset of Oakland this week, which would pull Riverdale back into play. There is a scenario where the Warriors can fall to fourth, but it involves both Cookeville and Coffee County winning out and the Warriors losing to Warren County. Blackman-Cookeville should be for the fourth seed next week.

Region 4

1. Hendersonville – 5-3 overall, 3-0 4-6A
Current first-round opponent: vs. Cookeville
Can finish: 1st, 2nd or 3rd
Left to play: vs. Rossview; at Mt. Juliet
2. Rossview – 5-2 overall, 2-1 4-6A
Current first-round opponent: vs. Riverdale
Can finish: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th or out
Left to play: at Hendersonville, at Lebanon
3. Mt. Juliet – 5-2 overall, 2-1 4-6A
Current first-round opponent: at Warren County
Can finish: 1st, 2nd, 3rd or 4th
Left to play: at Station Camp; vs. Hendersonville
4. Lebanon – 5-3 overall, 1-2 4-6A
Current first-round opponent: at Oakland
Can finish: 2nd, 3rd, 4th or out
Left to play: vs. Wilson Central; vs. Rossview
5. Wilson Central – 4-4 overall, 1-2 4-6A
Current first-round opponent: none, below cut line
Can finish: 3rd, 4th or out
Left to play: at Lebanon; vs. Station Camp

Lots of shuffling could go on in the next two weeks in Region 4. Rossview-Hendersonville and Wilson Central-Lebanon should help whittle down a lot of the possibilities. There is one scenario where winless Station Camp can get in (they need both Lebanon and Mt. Juliet to lose out), but they haven’t scored a point in region play so far. We’ll add them next week if it’s warranted.

Region 5

1. Smyrna – 5-3 overall, 4-0 5-6A
Current first-round opponent: vs. Franklin
Can finish: 1st, 2nd or 3rd
Left to play: vs. La Vergne; at Stewarts Creek
2. La Vergne – 5-3 overall, 4-0 5-6A
Current first-round opponent: vs. Ravenwood
Can finish: 1st, 2nd or 3rd
Left to play: at Smyrna; vs. Cane Ridge
3. Stewarts Creek – 4-4 overall, 3-1 5-6A
Current first-round opponent: at Independence
Can finish: 1st, 2nd or 3rd
Left to play: at Overton; vs. Smyrna
4. Cane Ridge – 2-2 overall, 2-1 5-6A
Current first-round opponent: at Brentwood
Can finish: 4th or out
Left to play: at La Vergne
5. Overton – 1-2 overall, 1-2 5-6A
Current first-round opponent: none, below cut line
Can finish: 4th or out
Left to play: vs. Stewarts Creek; vs. McGavock

The top three are locked in, it’s just a matter of where they’ll finish. Both La Vergne and Stewarts Creek still get to play Smyrna for the top spot. If La Vergne knocks off Cane Ridge, the door’s open for Overton if the Bobcats win out.

Region 6

1. Brentwood – 6-2 overall, 3-0 6-6A
Current first-round opponent: vs. Cane Ridge
Can finish: 1st, 2nd or 3rd
Left to play: vs. Independence; vs. Centennial
2. Independence – 5-1 overall, 3-0 6-6A
Current first-round opponent: vs. Stewarts Creek
Can finish: 1st, 2nd or 3rd
Left to play: at Brentwood; vs. Ravenwood
3. Ravenwood – 5-4 overall, 3-1 6-6A
Current first-round opponent: at La Vergne
Can finish: 1st, 2nd or 3rd
Left to play: at Independence
4. Franklin – 3-5 overall, 1-3 6-6A
Current first-round opponent: at Smyrna
Can finish: 4th or out
Left to play: at Dickson County
5. Centennial – 2-6 overall, 1-3 6-6A
Current first-round opponent: none, below cut line
Can finish: 4th or out
Left to play: at Brentwood

It’s actually simple when it comes to the top of Region 6 — a Brentwood win over Independence clinches the region for the Bruins, and Ravenwood-Indy is for second place. The fourth spot comes down to the Week 11 games. Centennial played Brentwood tight last year in a similar spot, so it’s not a foregone conclusion for Franklin, who can lock it up with a win over Dickson County as well.

Class 5A

Region 5

1. Summit – 8-1 overall, 4-0 5-5A
Current first-round opponent: vs. Hillsboro
Can finish: 1st (clinched)
Left to play: vs. Lincoln County
3. Columbia – 4-4 overall, 1-3 5-5A
Current first-round opponent: at Beech
Can finish: 2nd, 3rd, 4th or out
Left to play: at Shelbyville
5. Page – 3-3 overall, 1-1 5-5A
Current first-round opponent: none, below cut line
Can finish: 2nd, 3rd, 4th or out
Left to play: vs. Lincoln County; at Franklin County

Page has arguably the most to play for in the final two weeks, as the Patriots can move up all the way to second if things fall just right. Beyond that, it could get very messy with tiebreakers. Only Summit has clinched a playoff spot as of now.

Region 6

1. Gallatin – 3-5 overall, 3-0 6-5A
Current first-round opponent: vs. Lincoln County
Can finish: 1st, 2nd or 3rd
Left to play: vs. Beech; vs. Glencliff
2. Beech – 5-1 overall, 2-0 6-5A
Current first-round opponent: vs. Columbia
Can finish: 1st, 2nd, 3rd or 4th
Left to play: at Gallatin; vs. Hillwood
3. Hillwood – 3-0 overall, 2-0 6-5A
Current first-round opponent: at Shelbyville
Can finish: 2nd, 3rd or 4th
Left to play: at Hillsboro; at Beech
4. Hillsboro – 2-2 overall, 1-1 6-5A
Current first-round opponent: at Summit
Can finish: 4th or out
Left to play: vs. Hillwood; vs. Hunters Lane
5. Hunters Lane – 2-2 overall, 1-1 6-5A
Current first-round opponent: none, below cut line
Can finish: 4th or out
Left to play: at Hillsboro

Gallatin, despite recent struggles, can win Region 6 with a win over Beech. If Beech wins, they’ll need a win over Hillwood in Week 11 to secure the region title. Hunters Lane would get in if the Warriors defeat Hillsboro next week.

Region 7

1. Northeast – 5-1 overall, 5-0 7-5A
Current first-round opponent: none, first-round bye (no Region 8 fourth-place team is eligible)
Can finish: 1st or 2nd
Left to play: vs. Henry County
4. Kenwood – 2-4 overall, 2-3 7-5A
Current first-round opponent: at Munford
Can finish: 3rd, 4th or out
Left to play: vs. Dyer County
5. Clarksville – 2-4 overall, 1-3 7-5A
Current first-round opponent: none, below cut line
Can finish: 3rd, 4th or out
Left to play: vs. Northwest; at West Creek
6. Northwest – 1-5 overall, 1-3 7-5A
Current first-round opponent: none, below cut line
Can finish: 4th or out
Left to play: at Clarksville; at Henry County

Northeast hosts Henry County for the Region 7 title — important because with only two Region 8 teams playing, there’s a chance the winner of that game gets home-field advantage all the way through the semifinals. Beyond the top two, the final two weeks could provide chaos. Even West Creek, still winless in region play, has a path to the postseason if everything falls their way, and we’ll include them here next week if it’s warranted.

Class 4A

Region 3

1. DeKalb County – 6-3 overall, 3-0 3-4A
Current first-round opponent: vs. Lawrence County
Can finish: 1st (clinched)
Left to play: vs. Cumberland County
2. Macon County – 6-2 overall, 2-1 3-4A
Current first-round opponent: vs. Nolensville
Can finish: 2nd or 3rd
Left to play: at Livingston Academy

The only question left in this region is whether Macon County or Livingston Academy finishes second. That’ll be answered next week.

Region 4

3. Nolensville – 4-2 overall, 3-0 4-4A
Current first-round opponent: at Macon County
Can finish: 1st, 2nd or 3rd
Left to play: at Tullahoma; vs. Marshall County
5. Spring Hill – 2-5 overall, 1-2 4-4A
Current first-round opponent: none, below cut line
Can finish: 4th or out
Left to play: vs. Lawrence County

Nolensville gets to play wrecking ball with the top of Region 4 in the final two weeks, and it’s simple — win both, and the title’s yours. If Tullahoma wins this week, however, Nolensville plays Marshall County for second next week. Lawrence County-Spring Hill is an elimination game.

Region 5

1. Creek Wood – 8-0 overall, 4-0 5-4A
Current first-round opponent: vs. Jackson South Side
Can finish: 1st or 2nd
Left to play: vs. Portland; at Springfield
2. Springfield – 7-1 overall, 4-0 5-4A
Current first-round opponent: vs. Jackson North Side
Can finish: 1st, 2nd or 3rd
Left to play: at Greenbrier; vs. Creek Wood
3. White House Heritage – 6-2 overall, 3-2 5-4A
Current first-round opponent: at Hardin County
Can finish: 3rd, 4th or out
Left to play: vs. Montgomery Central
4. Greenbrier – 4-2 overall, 2-2 5-4A
Current first-round opponent: at Lexington
Can finish: 2nd, 3rd, 4th or out
Left to play: vs. Springfield; at White House
5. Montgomery Central – 3-3 overall, 1-3 5-4A
Current first-round opponent: none, below cut line
Can finish: 3rd, 4th or out
Left to play: vs. White House; at White House Heritage
6. White House – 2-6 overall, 1-3 5-4A
Current first-round opponent: none, below cut line
Can finish: 4th or out
Left to play: at Montgomery Central; vs. Greenbrier

Region 5 has several layers that’ll be uncovered in the next two weeks. Creek Wood-Springfield is for the region title in Week 11 regardless of this week’s results. Greenbrier-White House might be for a playoff spot in Week 11 as well, along with Montgomery Central-White House Heritage.

Class 3A

Region 4

2. Smith County – 3-5 overall, 3-1 4-3A
Current first-round opponent: vs. Red Bank
Can finish: 2nd (clinched)
Left to play: at Grundy County
5. Cannon County – 0-9 overall, 1-3 4-3A (one COVID-19 region win)
Current first-round opponent: none, below cut line
Can finish: 3rd, 4th or out
Left to play: at York Institute

With the top two spots in Region 4 settled, the bottom two get the focus here. Cannon County must beat York Institute next week to have any chance to get in, and even then, tiebreakers could still shut them out if a three-way tie happens.

Region 5

1. Pearl-Cohn – 4-0 overall, 3-1 5-3A
Current first-round opponent: vs. Camden
Can finish: 1st or 2nd
Left to play: at Giles County
2. Giles County – 2-6 overall, 3-0 5-3A
Current first-round opponent: vs. Harpeth
Can finish: 1st or 2nd
Left to play: vs. Pearl-Cohn
3. East Nashville – 2-1 overall, 1-1 5-3A
Current first-round opponent: at Stewart County
Can finish: 3rd or 4th
Left to play: none
4. Stratford – 1-3 overall, 0-2 5-3A
Current first-round opponent: at Fairview
Can finish: 3rd, 4th or out
Left to play: at Whites Creek
5. Whites Creek – 1-2 overall, 0-2 5-3A
Current first-round opponent: none, below cut line
Can finish: 4th or out
Left to play: vs. Stratford

Pearl-Cohn plays at Giles County for the region title next week, while Stratford visits Whites Creek for the final playoff spot. If Whites Creek wins, the head-to-head tiebreaker with East Nashville wouldn’t apply (they didn’t play each other due to COVID-19), so other tiebreakers would have to be used to figure out third place.

Region 6

1. Fairview – 6-1 overall, 4-0 6-3A
Current first-round opponent: vs. Stratford
Can finish: 1st or 2nd
Left to play: at Stewart County
3. Harpeth – 2-5 overall, 2-2 6-3A
Current first-round opponent: at Giles County
Can finish: 3rd or 4th
Left to play: at Cheatham County
5. Sycamore – 0-7 overall, 0-3 6-3A
Current first-round opponent: none, below cut line
Can finish: 4th or out
Left to play: vs. Cheatham County; at Camden
6. Cheatham County – 0-8 overall, 0-3 6-3A
Current first-round opponent: none, below cut line
Can finish: 3rd, 4th or out
Left to play: at Sycamore; vs. Harpeth

It’s Fairview and Stewart County for the region title next week, while the rest of the region tussles for third and fourth. Tiebreakers could prove messy, but everyone’s still in play.

Class 2A

Region 4

1. Watertown – 7-1 overall, 4-0 4-2A
Current first-round opponent: vs. Tellico Plains
Can finish: 1st (clinched)
Left to play: at East Robertson
2. Trousdale County – 7-2 overall, 3-1 4-2A
Current first-round opponent: vs. Tyner
Can finish: 2nd (clinched)
Left to play: at Jackson County
3. Westmoreland – 3-5 overall, 2-2 4-2A
Current first-round opponent: at Marion County
Can finish: 3rd or 4th
Left to play: vs. Cascade
5. East Robertson – 2-6 overall, 1-3 4-2A
Current first-round opponent: none, below cut line
Can finish: 4th or out
Left to play: vs. Watertown

Westmoreland’s likely in, but the Eagles need to beat Cascade to avoid dropping to No. 4. East Robertson can get to No. 4, but it’ll require beating Watertown and getting some help from Trousdale County and Westmoreland.

Region 5

4. Eagleville – 3-5 overall, 2-2 5-2A
Current first-round opponent: at Riverside
Can finish: 3rd or 4th
Left to play: at Loretto

Region 5 is as clean-cut as it gets — Forrest-Lewis County is for first and Eagleville-Loretto is for third. It doesn’t get any easier to figure out than that.

Class 1A

Region 4

2. Gordonsville – 5-2 overall, 3-0 4-1A
Current first-round opponent: vs. Sale Creek
Can finish: 1st, 2nd, 3rd or 4th
Left to play: vs. Jo Byrns; at Monterey
4. Jo Byrns – 3-5 overall, 1-2 4-1A
Current first-round opponent: at Copper Basin
Can finish: 2nd, 3rd, 4th or out
Left to play: at Gordonsville; vs. Pickett County

Region 4 will clear up a bit after this week as each team still has two region games to play, but if things go the way they have this season, it’ll be Gordonsville and Monterey for the title next week. Red Boiling Springs is still mathematically alive, but the Bulldogs have been outscored nearly 7-to-1 in region play this season. We’ll include them next week if they defeat Pickett County.

Division II-AAA

East

1. Brentwood Academy – 8-0 overall, 3-0 DII-AAA East
Current first-round opponent: vs. MUS
Can finish: 1st or 2nd
Left to play: at Ensworth; at Baylor
2. Father Ryan – 5-2 overall, 3-1 DII-AAA East
Current first-round opponent: vs. MBA
Can finish: 1st or 2nd
Left to play: vs. Knoxville Catholic
5. Ensworth – 2-4 overall, 0-2 DII-AAA East
Current first-round opponent: none, below cut line
Can finish: 3rd, 4th or out
Left to play: vs. Brentwood Academy; vs. McCallie; at Knoxville Catholic

Brentwood Academy locks the title up with a win at Ensworth. Father Ryan likely finishes second since the Eagles have two region games remaining and only need one win to finish it off. Ensworth gets an extra week to finish their schedule and can do real damage as two of the three teams the Tigers have remaining are ahead of them. Having lost their two region games by a grand total of seven points, they’re in the mix for a playoff spot, but they must beat McCallie next week.

West

2. Pope John Paul II – 6-2 overall, 2-2 DII-AAA West
Current first-round opponent: vs. McCallie
Can finish: 2nd, 3rd or 4th
Left to play: vs. St. Benedict
3. MBA – 3-2 overall, 2-1 DII-AAA West
Current first-round opponent: at Father Ryan
Can finish: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th or out
Left to play: at Christian Brothers; at St. Benedict

Nearly every team in the West Region except JPII has two games remaining, and St. Benedict has three to play. MBA-Christian Brothers is a big game for this race this week.

Division II-AA

Middle

1. Lipscomb Academy – 6-2 overall, 2-0 DII-AA Middle
Current first-round opponent: vs. St. George’s
Can finish: 1st or 2nd
Left to play: vs. CPA; at BGA
2. CPA – 6-0 overall, 2-0 DII-AA Middle
Current first-round opponent: vs. Silverdale
Can finish: 1st or 2nd
Left to play: at Lipscomb Academy; vs. FRA
3. Goodpasture – 6-2 overall, 2-2 DII-AA Middle
Current first-round opponent: vs. Knoxville Webb
Can finish: 3rd (clinched)
Left to play: none
4. BGA – 4-3 overall, 1-2 DII-AA Middle
Current first-round opponent: at Harding Academy
Can finish: 4th (clinched)
Left to play: vs. Lipscomb Academy
5. FRA – 1-4 overall, 0-3 DII-AA Middle
Current first-round opponent: at ECS
Can finish: 5th (clinched)
Left to play: at CPA

CPA or Lipscomb Academy? That’s the only question remaining in the Middle Region and it gets answered this week. Everybody else is locked into their finishing positions as all five teams participate in the Division II-AA playoffs.

Division II-A

East

1. DCA – 7-0 overall, 5-0 DII-A East
Current first-round opponent: first-round bye
Can finish: 1st (clinched)
Left to play: at Franklin Grace; vs. Mt. Juliet Christian
2. Friendship Christian – 5-2 overall, 4-2 DII-A East
Current first-round opponent: first-round bye
Can finish: 2nd, 3rd or 4th
Left to play: vs. Webb School
4. MTCS – 3-4 overall, 3-1 DII-A East
Current first-round opponent: vs. Trinity Christian
Can finish: 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th or out
Left to play: at Mt. Juliet Christian; at Webb School
5. Franklin Grace – 4-4 overall, 2-3 DII-A East
Current first-round opponent: at Nashville Christian
Can finish: 4th, 5th, 6th or out
Left to play: vs. DCA; at Chattanooga Grace
7. Mt. Juliet Christian – 1-7 overall, 1-4 DII-A East
Current first-round opponent: none, below cut line
Can finish: 4th, 5th, 6th or out
Left to play: vs. MTCS; at DCA

Considering how competitive the top of this region has been against each other so far, DCA probably feels fortunate to have clinched the region title and not need to scoreboard-watch the last two weeks. There’s still so much that can play out over the final two games down the rest of the region standings, however.

West

1. Davidson Academy – 8-0 overall, 6-0 DII-A West
Current first-round opponent: first-round bye
Can finish: 1st or 2nd
Left to play: vs. Fayette Academy; at Jackson Christian
4. Nashville Christian – 5-3, 4-2 DII-A West
Current first-round opponent: vs. Franklin Grace
Can finish: 2nd, 3rd, 4th or 5th
Left to play: at Tipton-Rosemark; vs. Trinity Christian
8. Columbia Academy – 1-5 overall, 1-3 DII-A West
Current first-round opponent: none, below cut line
Can finish: 6th or out
Left to play: at Fayette Academy

It’ll come down to Davidson Academy or Jackson Christian for the region title next week, unless Jackson Christian gets tripped up by Trinity Christian this week. Seeds 2-5 could completely shuffle in the next two weeks. Columbia Academy can get in with a win and some help.